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2019 nfl win totals8/30/2023 ![]() ![]() Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports The Vikings are +160 favorite for the NFC North in 2020 and filled some holes on their roster with WR Justin Jefferson, CB Jeff Gladney & T Ezra Cleveland. Green Bay was the luckiest team last year with a 3.55 game difference, they should have finished second in the NFC North with 9.45 wins behind Minnesota 10.29 wins. Now let’s take a look at the teams who were lucky last season based on the Pythagorean Theorem. The Lions come out as the unluckiest team last year with a 3.30 game difference, they still would have finished bottom of the NFC North, but their win total has come out at 6. I’ve included what their 2019 record was, and what their projected number of wins should have been in parentheses. We can compare that with their actual wins (12) and see they over-performed by a little over one game, 1.09.īelow are the teams who were unlucky last season based on the Pythagorean Theorem. If we put those numbers into the formula, it tells us that they should have won 0.68 games for every one game played, multiple that by 16 games, and it gives us a full season’s predicted wins – 10.91. The Kansas City Chiefs scored 451 points and allowed 308 points during the 2019 season. Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl champions as an example. Using a team’s points for (PF) and points against (PA), we can calculate an expected win number of wins using the following formula – (PF^2/(PF^2+PA^2)). The mathematical formula is straightforward and gives a good indication of a team’s underlying performance. If you haven’t read the first part of the series on using a team’s record in one-score games to predict regular-season win totals, I suggest you take a look at that before continuing. ![]() In this article, we will look at how we can use the Pythagorean Theorem to evaluate a team’s performance and expected win percentage. Welcome to the second part of our series on predicting regular-season win totals in the NFL. ![]()
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